The DOI matches its Crossref record; 35 of the 35 references it cites were found in a registry or an index.
Space Radiation Cancer Risks and Uncertainties for Mars Missions
Abstract
Projecting cancer risks from exposure to space radiation is highly uncertain because of the absence of data for humans and because of the limited radiobiology data available for estimating late effects from the high-energy and charge (HZE) ions present in the galactic cosmic rays (GCR). Cancer risk projections involve many biological and physical factors, each of which has a differential range of uncertainty due to the lack of data and knowledge. We discuss an uncertainty assessment within the linear-additivity model using the approach of Monte Carlo sampling from subjective error distributions that represent the lack of knowledge in each factor to quantify the overall uncertainty in risk projections. Calculations are performed using the space radiation environment and transport codes for several Mars mission scenarios. This approach leads to estimates of the uncertainties in cancer risk projections of 400-600% for a Mars mission. The uncertainties in the quality factors are dominant. Using safety standards developed for low-Earth orbit, long-term space missions (>90 days) outside the Earth's magnetic field are currently unacceptable if the confidence levels in risk projections are considered. Because GCR exposures involve multiple particle or delta-ray tracks per cellular array, our results suggest that the shape of the dose response at low dose rates may be an additional uncertainty for estimating space radiation risks.
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“The accumulated radiation dose over a long-term mission to Mars is estimated to reach 1 Sv or more, depending on duration, shielding and time in the solar cycle (3).”
From Broadening the selection criteria for Astronauts undertaking long-term space travel (2022) · cites this paper as [3]
In the citing paper
“During deep space exploration, astronauts experience a chronic, low-dose-rate whole-body exposure to GCR (Fig. 2), which can accrue to ~1 Sv during a 1000-day Mars mission13–15.”
From Towards sustainable human space exploration—priorities for radiation research to quantify and mitigate radiation risks (2023) · cites this paper as [13]
Citations
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Mars' surface radiation environment measured with the Mars Science Laboratory's Curiosity rover
Hassler, D. M., Zeitlin, C., Wimmer-Schweingruber, R. F., Ehresmann, B., Rafkin, S., Eigenbrode, J. L., Brinza, D. E., Weigle, G., Böttcher, S., Böhm, E., et al. (2014) · Science · doi:10.1126/science.1244797 · Cited by 727
Self-citationHeavy ion carcinogenesis and human space exploration
Durante, M., & Cucinotta, F. A. (2008) · Nature Reviews Cancer · doi:10.1038/nrc2391 · Cited by 578
Self-citationPhysical basis of radiation protection in space travel
Durante, M., & Cucinotta, F. A. (2011) · Reviews of Modern Physics · doi:10.1103/revmodphys.83.1245 · Cited by 528
Self-citationHow Safe Is Safe Enough? Radiation Risk for a Human Mission to Mars
Cucinotta, F. A., Kim, M.-H. Y., Chappell, L. J., & Huff, J. L. (2013) · PLoS ONE · doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0074988 · Cited by 250
Self-citationICRP Publication 123: Assessment of Radiation Exposure of Astronauts in Space
Dietze, G., Bartlett, D. T., Cool, D. A., Cucinotta, F. A., Jia, X., McAulay, I. R., Pelliccioni, M., Petrov, V., Reitz, G., & Sato, T. (2013) · Annals of the ICRP · doi:10.1016/j.icrp.2013.05.004 · Cited by 239
Self-citation
Metadata
- Authors
- Cucinotta, F. A., Schimmerling, W., Wilson, J. W., Peterson, L. E., Badhwar, G. D., Saganti, P. B., & Dicello, J. F.
- Affiliations
- National Aeronautics and Space Administration (US)
- Langley Research Center (US)
- Baylor College of Medicine (US)
- Johnson Space Center (US)
- Johns Hopkins University (US)
- Corresponding author
- Cucinotta, Francis A.
- Venue
- Radiation Research
- Publisher
- Radiation Research Society
- Published
- 2001-11
- Volume
- 156
- Issue
- 5
- Pages
- 682-688
- ISSN
- 0033-7587 (ISSN-L)
- 1938-5404
- OpenAlex
- W2173229798
- Semantic Scholar
- 62e8c9ddf3785370c474a988bb7c5db2db1717a4
- Cited by
- 328
- References
- 35
- Citations by year
- 2026: 9 · 2025: 16 · 2024: 15 · 2023: 9 · 2022: 9 · 2021: 13 · 2020: 10 · 2019: 5 · 2018: 19 · 2017: 12 · 2016: 8 · 2015: 13 · 2014: 14 · 2013: 16 · 2012: 10
- FWCI
- 11.74
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- closed
- Locations
- Radiation Research (publishedVersion)
- PubMed (publishedVersion)
- BioOne Complete (BioOne) (submittedVersion)
- Topics
- Physical Sciences › Physics and Astronomy › Radiation › Radiation Therapy and Dosimetry
- Health Sciences › Medicine › Radiology, Nuclear Medicine and Imaging › Effects of Radiation Exposure
- Health Sciences › Medicine › Physiology (medical) › Spaceflight effects on biology
- Keywords
- space radiation, cancer risk, Mars missions, galactic cosmic rays, uncertainty analysis, quality factor, dose-response relationship, low dose rate, Monte Carlo sampling
- MeSH terms
- Cosmic Radiation, Humans, Neoplasms, Radiation-Induced, Space Flight, Mars, Risk Assessment
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- CoChat. (2026). Citation check: Space Radiation Cancer Risks and Uncertainties for Mars Missions. https://app.cochat.ai/papers/10.1667/0033-7587(2001)156%5B0682:srcrau%5D2.0.co;2
- The paper
- Cucinotta, F. A., Schimmerling, W., Wilson, J. W., Peterson, L. E., Badhwar, G. D., Saganti, P. B., & Dicello, J. F. (2001). Space Radiation Cancer Risks and Uncertainties for Mars Missions. Radiation Research. https://doi.org/10.1667/0033-7587(2001)156%5B0682%3Asrcrau%5D2.0.co%3B2
